The mixing rate of the arterial blood pressure waveform Markov chain is correlated with shock index during hemorrhage in anesthetized swine

Identifying the need for interventions during hemorrhage is complicated due to physiological compensation mechanisms that can stabilize vital signs until a significant amount of blood loss. Physiological systems providing compensation during hemorrhage affect the arterial blood pressure waveform through changes in dynamics and waveform morphology. We investigated the use of Markov chain analysis of the arterial blood pressure waveform to monitor physiological systems changes during hemorrhage. Continuous arterial blood pressure recordings were made on anesthetized swine (N=7) during a 5 min baseline period and during a slow hemorrhage (10 ml/kg over 30 min). Markov chain analysis was applied to 20 sec arterial blood pressure waveform segments with a sliding window. 20 ranges of arterial blood pressure were defined as states and empirical transition probability matrices were determined for each 20 sec segment. The mixing rate (2nd largest eigenvalue of the transition probability matrix) was determined for all segments. A change in the mixing rate from baseline estimates was identified during hemorrhage for each animal (median time of 13 min, ~10% estimated blood volume, with minimum and maximum times of 2 and 33 min, respectively). The mixing rate was found to have an inverse correlation with shock index for all 7 animals (median correlation coefficient of -0.95 with minimum and maximum of -0.98 and -0.58, respectively). The Markov chain mixing rate of arterial blood pressure recordings is a novel potential biomarker for monitoring and understanding physiological systems during hemorrhage.